JJG Sustainable Withdrawal Strategy

Ideas of sustainable withdrawal that calculates monthly budget limits based BTC spot price relative to the 200-Week Moving Average (200-WMA). by JayJuanGee (JJG)

Price Above 200-WMA (%)
Date
 
BTC Spot Price
BTC Stash Value (Spot)
 
200-Week MA
BTC Stash Value (200-WMA)
 
Day's Range
   
200-Week's Range
   

Input Area

Spot price

Bitcoin Price / 200 WMA Chart

1M 6M 1Y 5Y 10Y ALL

Price data by coingecko

Output Area

Monthly Authorized Withdrawal  

Advanced Withdrawal  

(optional - yet recommend) Details below

Simulation

You can simulate what your portfolio would be like if you had already started this strategy.

Considering you withdrawal at fixed dates 8th and 22nd each month.

How to use the information provided through this tool:

Underlying Presumptions

This tool is designed to help individuals, institutions, or developer funds manage their Bitcoin holdings and employ sustainable, volatility-adjusted withdrawal methods.

Note: This is not a short-term trading tool; it is a long-term capital preservation and budgeting strategy that dynamically adjusts your cash flow based on the 200-week moving average (200-WMA).

•BTC Stash Size

This represents the total size of your Bitcoin portfolio allocated to this specific withdrawal budget (e.g., a starting amount of 21 BTC for developer grants or personal retirement). You can allocate all or just a segment of your holdings to this strategy to ensure capital longevity.

•Annual Withdrawal Rate

Because the strategy values your stash at the 200-WMA (which is historically close to Bitcoin's macro bottoms), the sustainable rate can be higher than the traditional 4% rule.

  • 0% - 5%
    Growth-Oriented: Stash size will likely continue to grow rapidly in value.
  • 6% - 10%
    Sustainable: Standard target ranges.
  • 11% - 16%
    Aggressive: Less likely to be sustainable over multi-decade cycles.
  • 17%+
    Depletion Risk: High probability of exhausting the portfolio during bear markets.

•Monthly Authorized Withdrawal Limits

Monthly Limit = (Stash Size × Annual Rate) ÷ 12

The system dynamically scales your maximum monthly withdrawal allowance based on the current premium or discount of the spot price relative to the 200-WMA:

  • Spot ≥ 25% above 200-WMA 100% Authorized
  • Spot 10% to 25% above 200-WMA 90% Authorized
  • Spot 0% to 10% above 200-WMA 85% Authorized
  • Spot 0% to 20% below 200-WMA 70% Authorized
  • Spot 20% to 30% below 200-WMA 50% Authorized
  • Spot 30% to 35% below 200-WMA 40% Authorized
  • Spot > 35% below 200-WMA 0% (Withdrawals Paused)

•Advanced Withdrawal Option

When Bitcoin is in a bull market and trading significantly above its 200-WMA, the strategy authorizes you to take multiple months of budget in advance (cashing out during highs to fund future low-budget periods):

  • 33% to 66% premium Current + 1 month
  • 66% to 100% premium Current + 3 months
  • 100% to 200% premium Current + 5 months
  • 200% to 400% premium Current + 11 months
  • 400% to 650% premium Current + 23 months
  • 650% to 900% premium Current + 35 months
  • 900% to 1400% premium Current + 47 months
  • > 1400% premium Current + 59 months